“People are fascinated by the extremes of humanity, whether it’s going to the moon, how fast someone can run in the Olympics, or even how long someone can live”, said lead author Michael Pearce, a UW doctoral student in statistics.
‘The likelihood of supercentenarians breaking the current age record increases with an expanding global population in this 21stcentury.’
Longevity can complicate government and economic policies, as well as individuals’ own health care and lifestyle decisions, furnishing what’s probable or even possible, relevant at all levels of society.
The new study published in Demographic Research, uses statistical modeling to examine the extremes of human life helps to quantify the belief that some individual will reach various extreme ages this century.
To calculate the probability of living past 110 researchers track the database of supercentenarians from 10 European countries, plus Canada, Japan and the United States.
Using a Bayesian approach to estimate probability, the team created projections for the maximum reported age at death in all 13 countries from 2020 through 2100.
The findings of the study estimated near 100% probability that the current record of maximum reported age at death will be broken; The probability of a person living longer upto 124 years old remains stronger; and even longer lifespan is possible but less likely to happen.
People who achieve extreme longevity are still rare enough to represent a select population. Even with population growth the advances in health care are flattening the mortality rate after a certain age.
Source: Medindia
