A new study released on Friday reveals that despite numerous geopolitical, metabolic, and environmental challenges, global life expectancy is projected to increase significantly by 2050. However, this extended lifespan is likely to come with an increased number of years spent in poor health. The findings, based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 and published in The Lancet journal, provide critical insights into future health trends (1^✔ ✔Trusted Source
Global life expectancy to increase by nearly 5 years by 2050 despite geopolitical, metabolic, and environmental threats, reports new global study

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Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy Projections

According to the study, global life expectancy is expected to rise by 4.9 years for men and 4.2 years for women by the year 2050. This increase translates to an average global life expectancy of 78.1 years by mid-century, marking a significant 4.5-year rise from current figures. Concurrently, global healthy life expectancy (HALE)—the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health—is projected to reach 67.4 years, reflecting a 2.6-year increase.

The researchers behind the study attribute these gains to the ongoing transition from a predominance of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs) to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). NCDs, which include cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes, are becoming more prevalent and pose significant challenges to health systems worldwide.

Disparities in Life Expectancy and Health Interventions

A notable finding of the study is the predicted reduction in geographic disparities in life expectancy. Chris Murray, Chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), emphasized the significance of this trend. “In addition to an increase in life expectancy overall, we have found that the disparity in life expectancy across geographies will lessen,” said Murray.

Murray also highlighted the critical role of policy interventions in addressing the global disease burden. He pointed out that the most substantial opportunity to reduce the global disease burden lies in preventing and mitigating behavioral and metabolic risk factors. “There is immense opportunity ahead for us to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these rising metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those related to behavioral and lifestyle factors like high blood sugar, high body mass index, and high blood pressure,” Murray stated.

Addressing the Shift to Non-Communicable Diseases

The transition from CMNNs to NCDs underscores the need for targeted health interventions and policies. As populations age and lifestyle factors such as diet, physical activity, and substance use increasingly influence health outcomes, there is a pressing need to focus on prevention and management of NCDs. Effective strategies include promoting healthier diets, increasing physical activity, and implementing measures to control metabolic risk factors.

Moreover, healthcare systems must adapt to manage the rising burden of NCDs. This involves investing in healthcare infrastructure, training healthcare professionals, and ensuring access to essential medicines and technologies.

While the projected increase in global life expectancy by 2050 is a positive development, the concurrent rise in years spent in poor health poses significant challenges. Addressing these challenges requires a concerted effort to prevent and manage non-communicable diseases, mitigate behavioral and metabolic risk factors, and reduce health disparities across different regions. By focusing on these areas, policymakers and health professionals can help ensure that increased life expectancy translates to more years of healthy, productive life for individuals around the world.

Reference:

1. Global life expectancy to increase by nearly 5 years by 2050 despite geopolitical, metabolic, and environmental threats, reports new global study – (https://www.healthdata.org/news-events/newsroom/news-releases/global-life-expectancy-increase-nearly-5-years-2050-despite)

Source-Medindia