In the first scenario,COVID-19 vaccines will be required annually; in the second scenario, annual vaccination will be given only for the high-risk population of people 65 years of age and older, while everyone below 65 years of age will need a vaccine only every two years.

In the third scenario,the high-risk population of people over 65 years of age will receive a COVID-19 vaccine every two years, while everyone below 65 years will need a vaccine only every five years.

Philipp Rosenbaum, PhD, Senior Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “In the latter two scenarios, market sales will fluctuate significantly over the forecast period to 2026, since most people in the 7MM will receive a vaccine in 2021”.

The launch of a nanoparticle vaccine from Novavax and a recombinant protein vaccine from Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline will decrease the market share of mRNA vaccines from 95.4% to 85% by 2026, but vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna will remain dominant.

The market share of adenovirus vector-based vaccines from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson is suspected to decrease from 3.2% in 2021 to 2.1% in 2026 due to their lower efficacy and lack of contract renewal in Europe.

Barriers of growth will be low vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy that can be enhanced if more adverse events are observed with COVID-19 vaccines.

Key Opinion Leaders (KOL) interviewed by GlobalData for this report agreed that it would not be possible to know how long the protection from COVID-19 vaccines will last until the data comes in, but they emphasized that booster doses may be necessary for SARS-CoV-2 variants.

While some think that protection will last for several years, others think that annual vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines will be necessary, similar to immunization against seasonal influenza.

Source: Medindia