COVID-19, responsible for more than 6.8 million global fatalities, stands as one of the most lethal pandemics in human history. Given indications that it may not be the final pandemic, health professionals are advocating for enhanced pandemic preparedness.
While nobody can predict the future of COVID-19 recent rise in infections spark concerns of fresh waves. But health experts suggest that the virus has mellowed down and will not cause any future concerns as in the past. However, they warned to keep up surveillance to warn of any new changes in the mutations that can cause harm.”As COVID-19 cases are going up, people think that it is the return of COVID-19. I don’t think it is the return of COVID-19. Yes, there’ll be some waves going up and down. Because people who have been infected and/or vaccinated one year or two years back, they will have some waning immunity, which can make them prone to new infections,” Dr. Ishwar Gilada, an infectious disease expert, told IANS. Dr. Gilada, however, said that the infections are mild and the trajectory of the virus can be measured via number of people needing oxygen, hospitalization, ICU care, ventilator support and death rate.”If you look at all these five parameters, they are all low, low and low. And that’s the reason that COVID-19 currently is not going to become a big problem.
Comparing Influenza to COVID-19 and the Ongoing Threat of Disease X
“Both in the numbers as well as giving any kind of morbidity and mortality. And therefore if we are not bothered about influenza, we should not be bothered about COVID-19 at all,” he explained. Disease X was first coined in 2018 by the WHO, a year before the COVID-19 pandemic struck the world. It is among the WHO’s “Blue print list priority diseases” that could cause the next deadly pandemic and includes Ebola, SARS and Zika.”Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease,” the WHO said. The Blueprint list highlights infectious diseases for which we lack medical counter measures. Some public health experts believe the next Disease X will be zoonotic, meaning it will originate in wild or domestic animals, then spill over to infect humans, as Ebola, HIV/AIDS and COVID-19.
“Though we have navigated the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s crucial to recognize that this is unlikely to be the last pandemic we face. Future pandemics are not only possible but also highly probable,” Dr. Dipu TS, Associate Professor, Division of Infectious Diseases, Amrita Hospital, Kochi, told IANS. “While there are severe infections like Nipah, Ebola, and monkeypox, the spread of these diseases is more related to person-to-person physical contact rather than airborne transmission, as seen with COVID-19 and influenza,” he said.”These are unlikely to become epidemic or pandemic as any disease with high mortality and a shorter incubation they do not survive longer,” added Dr. Gilada.More than 1.6 million viruses are yet-to-be-discovered, and viral species from these viral families are estimated to exist in mammal and bird hosts — the most important reservoirs for viral zoonoses. According to Dr. Dipu, future pandemics are likely to involve airborne respiratory infections sweeping the globe with mild to moderate severity.
Bacterial Infections and Pandemics
Bacterial infections like the plague are unlikely to reach pandemic proportions unless they occur in the context of biological warfare.”Factors such as globalization, urbanization, climate change, and rapidly evolving ecosystems all increase the risk of an emerging pandemic sooner rather than later,” he said.At the 76th World Health Assembly meet, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also issued a stark warning, urging the world to prepare for the next pandemic, which he believes could be even deadlier than COVID-19.In such a scenario, “what we should have is pandemic or emergency preparedness and global health security,” Dr. Gilada said.
“Global health security means everywhere people should be able to access treatment, access medicine, and medical care, that should not be only for those people who are in rich countries,” he said, citing that the global south has been unfortunate to have less access. He lauded India’s efforts for providing these to people in the global south at low cost.”Mitigating the impact (of pandemics) will require global cooperation, robust public health infrastructure, and early detection systems.
